Monday, November 5, 2012

NP Deluxe Election Prediction with Bacon

So, if I haven't done so by now (I think I did), I just want to say that Nuking Politics officially endorses Mitt Romney. Because he isn't Obama. I am sure I said that before somewhere, probably in an announcement or something, but I just wanted to be clear with you folks that we are, in fact, endorsing Mitt Romney. Even if most of us are, at the least, a bit leery of his dubious moderate (and some say RINO) credentials.

Of course, Reagan had kind of moderately dubious credentials too...and look what happened. There are so many parallels that can be drawn between this election and Reagan vs. Carter. Except that Obama is actually far worse than Carter...which most believed for the past 30 years couldn't be possible.

Hey! Obama accomplished something then. Out-Cartering Carter. Take your victories where you can get them.

And speaking of victories, my official prognostication for tomorrow:

Obama will prove to maintain his 47% grip on eligible voters...but only about 47% of those will even bother to show up (or be dragged in against their will by democrat get-out-the-vote groups armed with buses).

A large majority of the 38% or so of conservatives and those who always vote Republican will solidly vote Romney. I'm guessing in the 70-80% range of eligible voters in that category.

I'm guessing that a strong majority of actual "swing" and "undecided" types will lean Romney...maybe as much as 60%. I doubt more than 50% of them will actually vote though.

So, a strong turnout for Romney, a weak turnout for Obama. I think Romney will actually get Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania...completing an electoral landslide.

I base this amateur prediction on the following points:

1. Political rallies: Romney is consistently packing in the numbers whether it is Ohio, Florida, or Virginia. Obama's rallies have had dismal participation. A lot of his younger supporters simply don't care as this election isn't as "hip" as the 2008 election was. Even recent "grass roots" rallies, like the "Million Muppet March" have had really lame turnouts (they were about 999,400 muppets short).

2. The internet. The same tired lefty individuals and celebrities seem to be about the only voices screaming on the twitters, social networking sites like Facebook, and on the big blogs. They are pretty loud and active. But they are the only ones. For every one lefty, there are a handful of average people claiming to side with Romney this time around. It was completely the opposite in 2008. Even the You tubes are slanting well towards Romney now, when every other video in 2008 was about how cool Obama is and such drivel as that. If there was an aggregate poll based on internet activity, Romney would be far ahead. Regular polls ask people the question on your phone: Romney or Obama. Actual activity on the internet represents who is really active in this election. And the answer is, by far, those planning to vote Romney. This tells you who is more likely to actually go pull the lever.

3. State trends. Ohio rarely votes for a democrat twice. Wisconsin voters pulled the equivalent of a coup on democrats during the recall election, and there is some momentum still there. It took active, engaged voters to overturn what normally would have been an easy win for the democrats and the unions in a state where people just don't care much about more than cheese and beer (and who could blame them?). But their voters are active this season. Expect them to go Republican this time before they go back into hibernation. Even the rumor that Pennsylvania is in play tells me, based on what I said about actual voter turnout, that the PA will go Romney. Same for Michigan. Florida is simply trending Romney in about every poll, so that is a pretty strong indication.

So that is my prediction and the reasons. Take it with a grain of salt, as I am just an amateur at this sort of thing. But I did use reasoning. My gut tells me that it will be really close and even possibly an Obama win. But my reasoning tells me it will be a Romney landslide.

We'll see after tomorrow which I should have trusted.

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